Present and future limits for the PV generation growth

Renewable energy sources are central issues in the current EU energy policy. According to the European Council agreement on climate and energy package of December 2008 (the “20-20-20”), by 2020 the EU is committed to reducing its emissions of greenhouse gases to at least 20% below the 1990 levels, increasing the share of renewables in the energy mix to 20% and increasing power efficiency by 20%. Among renewables, photovoltaic (PV) is one of the most promising. Long derided as uneconomic, it is gaining ground as technologies improve and the cost of traditional energy sources rises. Also owing to the subsidies provided in different States, the PV market is quickly growing and PV technologies evolving. In some years, unsubsidized PV power could cost to end customers no more than electricity generated by fossil fuels or by renewable alternatives to solar in many markets, such as California and Italy, where an exceptional growth of PV in the next decade can be expected. This paper aims at pointing out the main factors that will limit PV penetration in the generation mix in 2020, even if PV maintains the best promises concerning cost reduction and technological and industrial development.